Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
